The Impact of Initial Condition Uncertainty on Numerical Simulations of Large-scale Explosive Cyclogenesis

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Abstract
The impact of initial condition uncertainty on short-range (up to 48 h) forecasts of large-scale explosive cyclogenesis is examined. Predictability experiments are conducted on 11 cases of rapid oceanic cyclogenesis that occurred in a long-term, perpetual January integration of a global, high-resolution, spectral model. Results are derived from the 11-case ensemble average. The perturbation used to represent the initial condition error in this study has a magnitude and spatial distribution that closely matches estimates of global analysis error. Results from the predictability experiments are compared to a set of physics sensitivity experiments which are used to represent an estimate of a “typical” modeling, error. Compared to the control simulations, the inclusion of initial error produces a composite cyclone with maximum deepening rate that is slightly reduced and a 24 h period of most rapid deepening that is somewhat delayed. The absolute position error in the surface cyclone is approximately ... Abstract The impact of initial condition uncertainty on short-range (up to 48 h) forecasts of large-scale explosive cyclogenesis is examined. Predictability experiments are conducted on 11 cases of rapid oceanic cyclogenesis that occurred in a long-term, perpetual January integration of a global, high-resolution, spectral model. Results are derived from the 11-case ensemble average. The perturbation used to represent the initial condition error in this study has a magnitude and spatial distribution that closely matches estimates of global analysis error. Results from the predictability experiments are compared to a set of physics sensitivity experiments which are used to represent an estimate of a “typical” modeling, error. Compared to the control simulations, the inclusion of initial error produces a composite cyclone with maximum deepening rate that is slightly reduced and a 24 h period of most rapid deepening that is somewhat delayed. The absolute position error in the surface cyclone is approximately ...

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