Long-term risk of recurrent stroke after a first-ever stroke. The Oxfordshire Community Stroke Project.

Publisher Website
Google Scholar
Abstract
There have been few community-based studies of long-term prognosis after acute stroke. This study aims to provide precise estimates of the absolute and relative risks of stroke recurrence in an unselected cohort of patients with a first-ever stroke.Six hundred seventy-five patients were registered in a community-based stroke register (the Oxfordshire Community Stroke Project) and prospectively followed for up to 6.5 years. Their relative risk of recurrent stroke was calculated using age- and sex-specific incidence rates for first stroke in Oxfordshire.One hundred eighty recurrent episodes of stroke were identified, of which 135 were first recurrences. Given survival, the actuarial risk of suffering a recurrence was 30% (95% confidence interval, 20% to 39%) by 5 years, about nine times the risk of stroke in the general population. The risk was highest early after the first stroke: 13% (95% confidence interval, 10% to 16%) by 1 year, 15 times the risk in the general population. After the first year the aver...