The Crimean issue

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Abstract
Crimea has been characterized as a flashpoint for future European security and is both part of Ukraine's state‐building process and a specific case in itself. Ownership of the Black Sea Fleet is but one issue: inter‐ethnic relations (including the sensitive question of the position of the Crimean Tatars), economic and social factors (such as the peninsula's heavy dependence on Ukraine for goods and materials and Ukraine's dependence on Russian energy), political organization (notably the constitutional position within Ukraine and the powers of the Crimean president and parliament), and international and strategic aspects (in particular the relative claims of Russian and Ukrainian nationalism in the region) all play their part in rendering this a complex issue. Various scenarios place the issue of Crimea at the heart of Ukrainian state‐building, and the prognosis for a peaceful resolution of the matter is not particularly encouraging.

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