On the limitations of general circulation climate models

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Abstract
General Circulation Models (GCMs) by definition calculate large‐scale dynamical and thermodynamical processes and their associated feedbacks from first principles. This aspect of GCMs is widely believed to give them an advantage in simulating global scale climate changes as compared to simpler models which do not calculate the large‐scale processes from first principles. However, we point out that the meridional transports of heat simulated by GCMs used in climate change experiments differ from observational analyses and from other GCMs by as much as a factor of two. We also demonstrate that GCM simulations of the large scale transports of heat are sensitive to the (uncertain) subgrid scale parameterizations. This leads us to question whether current GCMs are in fact superior to simpler models for simulating temperature changes associated with global scale climate change.