A Comparison of Alternative Exchange Rate Forecasting Models*

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Abstract
This paper compares a number of structural and times‐series models on the basis of their accuracy in forecasting the A ustralian‐US dollar exchange rate out of sample. Purchasing power parity, forward exchange theory, static and dynamic specifications of both the flexible price and sticky price monetary models, and univariate ARIMA models are considered in the paper. Exchange rate forecasts are generated at horizons of one to four quarters. In contrast to overseas results which support the view that the exchange rate follows a random walk, several models in this study are found to generate forecasts superior to the random walk model.