Using statistical risk information to assess oral contraceptive safety

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Abstract
The effect of variations in the presentation of oral contraceptive risk information on perceived safety was investigated. Four tests of the hypothesis that consumers focus on the absolute value of the numbers presented when assessing risk probabilities were performed with the following results: (1) when base rates are given, risks are perceived as less likely than when base rates are not given; (2) risks seem smaller when the information provided focuses on the number that willnotdie than when the number of expected deaths is presented; (3) contrary to our expectation, respondents do not focus on foreground numbers when risk was represented in an ‘X out of Y occurrences’ format; (4) respondents judged a risk of ‘4.15 times greater’ as less likely than when the information was presented as ‘415% greater risk’. We concluded that consumers convert statistical risk information into judgements about the magnitude of the number presented (small or large number) and utilize this more meaningful information when making risk judgements.