Forecasting Damaging Earthquakes in the Central and Eastern United States
- 21 September 1990
- journal article
- Published by American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) in Science
- Vol. 249 (4975) , 1412-1416
- https://doi.org/10.1126/science.249.4975.1412
Abstract
Analysis of seismograph network data, earthquake catalogs from 1727 to 1982, and paleoseismic data for the central and eastern United States indicate that the Poisson probability of a damaging earthquake (magnitude >/= 6.0) occurring during the next 30 years is at a moderate to high level (0.4 to 0.6). When differences in seismic wave attenuation are taken into account, the central and eastern United States has approximately two-thirds the likelihood of California to produce an earthquake with comparable damage area and societal impact within the next 30 years.Keywords
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