Prediction of violence using the HCR-20: a prospective study in two maximum-security correctional institutions

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Abstract
The HCR-20 and the PCL:SV were used in a prospective study of 41 long-term sentenced offenders in two correctional, maximum-security institutions. The aim was to test the validity of these instruments in the prediction of institutional violence. All assessments were made by a comprehensive examination of the offenders’ files, completed with clinical interviews ranging from 1 to 3 hours. The mean follow-up time was 8 months. Our results show high predictive validity for the HCR-20’s clinical and risk management items, but for almost none of its historical items. The results suggest that violence inside correctional institutions can be predicted with a certain degree of validity by using the HCR-20 and the PCL:SV, even within a selective ‘high-risk’ group of offenders such as that under study here.

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