The Decline and Fall of the Pribilof Fur Seal (Callorhinus ursinus): A Simulation Study

Publisher Website
Google Scholar
Abstract
A mathematical model incorporating the basic life history features of the North Pacific fur seal (Callorhinus ursinus) approximated the decline of the Pribilof Islands population by reconstructing pup estimates and counts of adult males over the period 1950 to 1987. Simulation results suggest that commercial female harvesting and a series of poor juvenile survival rates were responsible for causing and maintaining the observed decline in pup production on St. Paul Island from 1956 to 1970. A more recent drop in pup production since 1976 is also attributed to poor juvenile survival, but with the addition of higher natural mortalities of adult females. It appears that the natural mortality of adult females may have increased by 2 to 5% beginning in the mid 1970s. We suspect reductions in the fur seal food base and entanglement-related mortality associated with commercial fishing in the North Pacific are contributing to the current decline, although neither possibility has yet been clearly demonstrated.

This publication has 8 references indexed in Scilit: