Employment Prospects in a Commercially Viable Newfoundland Fishery: An Application of 'An Econometric Model of the Newfoundland Groundfishery'

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Abstract
An econometric model is utilized to simulate the effects of a policy change in which government financial assistance to a major Canadian marine fishery is withdrawn and the industry is placed on a commercially viable basis. Under near-ideal conditions of marketing and harvesting, harvesting employment would fall drastically, from approximately thirty thousand fishermen under the current regime to approximately six thousand. There would be a concomitant fall in seasonal fish plant employment, and a severe fall in those federal transfer payments (e.g., unemployment insurance) which are currently generated by extensive seasonal employment in both harvesting and processing sectors of the fishery. The policy analysis consists of simulations with a prototype econometric model which integrates the demand, processing, and harvesting sectors of the fishery. The essential components of the 1,000-equation model are described.

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