Evaluation of Eta–RSM Ensemble Probabilistic Precipitation Forecasts

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Abstract
The accuracy of short-range probabilistic forecasts of quantitative precipitation (PQPF) from the experimental Eta–Regional Spectral Model ensemble is compared with the accuracy of forecasts from the Nested Grid Model’s model output statistics (MOS) over a set of 13 case days from September 1995 through January 1996. Ensembles adjusted to compensate for deficiencies noted in prior forecasts were found to be more skillful than MOS for all precipitation categories except the basic probability of measurable precipitation. Gamma distributions fit to the corrected ensemble probability distributions provided an additional small improvement. Interestingly, despite the favorable comparison with MOS forecasts, this ensemble configuration showed no ability to “forecast the forecast skill” of precipitation—that is, the ensemble was not able to forecast the variable specificity of the ensemble probability distribution from day-to-day and location-to-location. Probability forecasts from gamma distributions de... Abstract The accuracy of short-range probabilistic forecasts of quantitative precipitation (PQPF) from the experimental Eta–Regional Spectral Model ensemble is compared with the accuracy of forecasts from the Nested Grid Model’s model output statistics (MOS) over a set of 13 case days from September 1995 through January 1996. Ensembles adjusted to compensate for deficiencies noted in prior forecasts were found to be more skillful than MOS for all precipitation categories except the basic probability of measurable precipitation. Gamma distributions fit to the corrected ensemble probability distributions provided an additional small improvement. Interestingly, despite the favorable comparison with MOS forecasts, this ensemble configuration showed no ability to “forecast the forecast skill” of precipitation—that is, the ensemble was not able to forecast the variable specificity of the ensemble probability distribution from day-to-day and location-to-location. Probability forecasts from gamma distributions de...

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