Effects of environmental fluctuation on an eco‐epidemiological model of the Salton sea

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Abstract
Elevated salinity, accelerated eutrophication, blooms of Avian botulism and dramatic water quality fluctuation are the key factors for massive die‐offs of Tilapias and pelicans in the Salton Sea. A stochastic model for infected Tilapias and their predator pelicans is proposed. The environmental parameters are perturbed by color noise characterized by Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process. The dynamical behavior of the system is studied by using the spectral density analysis and the solutions of the stochastic differential equations (SDE). A simple and transparent technique is given for finding the safe region in which the chance of pelican extinction is minimized. To substantiate the analytical results computer simulation is also performed for a hypothetical set of parameter values. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.