Forecasting Hourly Electricity Demand Using Time-Varying Splines

1 December 1993

journal article
research article
Published by JSTOR in Journal of the American Statistical Association

Vol. 88 (424) , 1228
https://doi.org/10.2307/2291261

Abstract

A method for modeling a changing periodic pattern is developed. The use of time-varying splines enables this to be done relatively parsimoniously. The method is applied in a model used to forecast hourly electricity demand, with the periodic movements being intradaily or intraweekly. The full model contains other components, including a temperature response, which is also modeled using splines.

Keywords

CUBIC SPLINES
FORECASTING
KALMAN FILTER
LOAD CURVE
NONLINEAR REGRESSION
SEASONALITY
STRUCTURAL TIME SERIES MODEL

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