Planner's Notebook: Electronic Spreadsheets in Planning The Case of Shiftshare Analysis

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Abstract
This article demonstrates how microcomputer-based spreadsheets can be used for local economic analysis. Using Lotus 1-2-3 the author develops a shiftshare model of employment changes in Providence County, Rhode Island, for 1976-82. The article analyzes such changes graphically and demonstrates the “what-if” capabilities of spreadsheets by producing alternate employment forecasts. A final analysis shows how spreadsheets can be used to decompose local industry employment changes into “inter-firm” and “intra-firm” components. Summary By simplifying data entry and routine calculation procedures, electronic spreadsheets such as Lotus 1-2-3, Multiplan, and SuperCalc3 open up new analytical frontiers to planning professionals and interested citizens. One such frontier is in the area of local economic analysis. Given a working knowledge of how to use a spreadsheet, the types of analyses suggested in this article—essential for economic development planning and forecasting—can be undertaken in as little as two or three hours. Electronic spreadsheets not only offer the potential for improved productivity; they also give planners a chance, through the process of testing different assumptions or forecasts, to improve the quality of their understanding.

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