Human Rights and the Democratic Proposition

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Abstract
Autocratization is expected to worsen human rights conditions; democratization is frequently heralded as a means for improving them. Unfortunately, neither relationship has been subjected to empirical investigation. The causal linkage between regime change and state repression is examined in the current study with a pooled cross-sectional time-series analysis of 137 countries from 1950 to 1982 (N=4,521). Four aspects of change are considered: (1) direction, (2) magnitude, (3) “smoothness” of the transition, and (4) duration of time at particular regime types. The results support the anticipated escalatory effect of autocratization for the magnitude variable, revealing influences that persist for 4 years. Additionally, there is support for the pacifying effect of democratization with regard to magnitude for the same 4-year time period. Direction, smoothness, and duration are found to be unimportant, but regime change does matter.

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