Fueling expansion in the third world: Population, development, debt, and the global decline of forests

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Abstract
Recent studies indicate that large‐scale deforestation may contribute to global warming and is a primary factor in the depletion of genetic material through extinction of plant and animal species. This study seeks to identify and estimate the importance of social factors affecting deforestation in the Third World. Using change scores in a linear regression analysis, the dependent variable, deforestation, is regressed on measures of rural population growth (1975–1985), change in agricultural development (1975–1985), and growth of national debt (1975–1985), while controlling for the original forest size (1975), total population (1975), and the original levels of development and debt (1975). Results, including 102 Third World countries, indicate that as both rural population and debt increase, so does deforestation. Increased agricultural development leads to less deforestation. Four countries—Brazil, Indonesia, India, and Colombia—are found to influence unduly the outcome of the regression. When these four countries are excluded from the analysis, only original forest size, rural population growth, change in debt, and original level of debt are significant. Increases in these variables are correlated with increased deforestation, except for original debt level, which is correlated negatively with deforestation.