Testing a Simulation Model for Reconstruction of Prehistoric Forest-Stand Dynamics

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Abstract
Three characteristics of the output of a forest-stand simulation model were matched to pollen records of actual vegetation in central Tennessee. Temporal shifts of individual pollen taxon frequencies were compared to shifts of individual plant species frequencies in simulated biomass for the last 16,000 yr. Individual pollen profiles (temporally ordered species frequencies) were also compared to simulated biomass profiles during that period. Modern ratios of pollen to vegetation composition (R values) were compared with those calculated from simulated biomass percentages and fossil pollen percentages. The model output was similar to the comparable characteristics of the pollen record. The model output is therefore a plausible description of vegetation characteristics at the site of pollen deposition in central Tennessee. The model produced information unavailable from other sets of prehistoric data. This information describes the invasion and growth of the yellow-poplar which produces no windborne pollen, and of palynologically indistinguishable oak and pine species. These results suggest that many paleoecological questions can be answered through appropriate simulation modeling studies.