The Water-Balance Components of the Aral Sea and their Impact on Long-Term Level Fluctuations

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Abstract
An analysis of water-balance components over the 45-year period 1926–1970 seeks to establish their relative significance in the marked decline of the Aral Sea level since 1961. Long-term fluctuations in the sea level are found to reflect both natural fluctuations in the water resources available to the drainage basin and the steady growth of human activity in the watershed area. An increase in water withdrawals for irrigation in the 1950s did not appreciably affect the Aral Sea level because of generally large water resources during those years. The intensive decline of the water level since 1961 is attributed mainly to a growth of consumptive withdrawals from the Syrdarya and Amudarya, the two main tributaries of the Aral Sea. The position of the sea level also depends on the annual fluctuations of evaporation from the sea surface, which tends to be more variable than the annual streamflow to the sea. The subsurface component of Aral Sea inflow, contrary to previous studies, is found to be a negligible factor.

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