DNA Barcoding Will Often Fail to Discover New Animal Species over Broad Parameter Space

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Abstract
With increasing force, genetic divergence of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) is being argued as the primary tool for discovery of animal species. Two thresholds of single-gene divergence have been proposed: reciprocal monophyly, and 10 times greater genetic divergence between than within species (the “10× rule”). To explore quantitatively the utility of each approach, we couple neutral coalescent theory and the classical Bateson-Dobzhansky-Muller (BDM) model of speciation. The joint stochastic dynamics of these two processes demonstrate that both thresholds fail to “discover” many reproductively isolated lineages under a single incompatibility BDM model, especially when BDM loci have been subject to divergent selection. Only when populations have been isolated for > 4 million generations did these thresholds achieve error rates of <10% under our model that incorporates variable population sizes. The high error rate evident in simulations is corroborated with six empirical data sets. These properties suggest that single-gene, high-throughput approaches to discovering new animal species will bias large-scale biodiversity surveys, particularly toward missing reproductively isolated lineages that have emerged by divergent selection or other mechanisms that accelerate reproductive isolation. Because single-gene thresholds for species discovery can result in substantial error at recent divergence times, they will misrepresent the correspondence between recently isolated populations and reproductively isolated lineages (= species).