A Simultaneous Equation Model of Canadian Voting Behaviour

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Abstract
Recent research on voting in United States presidential elections has begun to disentangle long-term and short-term components of electoral choice. This has been achieved through the use of complex models involving instrumental variables and two-stage or three-stage least squares regression. These techniques are particularly appropriate to understanding the voting decision in Canada because of the short-term variability of partisan identifications. Modelling voting choice, using simultaneous equations and data from the 1979 Canadian National Election Study, it was found that the major attitudinal determinants of voting—party identification and attitudes towards issues and party leaders—were strongly related to one another and to the direction of vote whereas sociodemographic characteristics were only weakly related to political attitudes and behaviour. In addition, the strength of these variables may vary across the major parties in any given election.

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