Microtine Population Fluctuations: An Ecosystem Approach Based on Time-Series Analysis

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Abstract
This time-series analysis describes the bimonthly population dynamics of 5308 voles (Microtus californicus) trapped in pit traps set continuously for over 21 yr, while emigrating from 2 study enclosures on a northern California (USA) grassland. A simple model is introduced to quantify seasonality in microtines and to relate seasonal population fluctuations to concurrent physical and community variables. Seasonal variation represented 33-46% of the observed total variability. Weather played a determining role in nonseasonal microtine population fluctuations, both directly and indirectly, through an effect on vegetation. Correlations between indicators of solar activity and nonseasonal microtine fluctuations may represent either a direct effect of those cosmic variables or a synchronous environmental effect of the Eltonian type.

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