Some Results Concerning the Estimation of Beta Distribution Parameters in PERT
- 1 March 1987
- journal article
- research article
- Published by Taylor & Francis in Journal of the Operational Research Society
- Vol. 38 (3) , 287-290
- https://doi.org/10.1057/jors.1987.45
Abstract
The traditional method of estimating mean activity-time in PERT analysis, as a weighted average of the pessimistic, most likely and optimistic activity-times, is examined. Based on properties of the beta distribution, it is shown that there are theoretical grounds for using this estimate for a specified range of modal activity times. Finally, a simple refinement of the estimate is suggested when the modal value lies outside this range.Keywords
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