Interdecadal Changes in the ENSO Teleconnection to the Caribbean Region and the North Atlantic Oscillation*

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Abstract
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon and variability in the subtropical North Atlantic high sea level pressure (SLP) are known to affect rainfall in the Caribbean region. An El Niño event is associated with drier-than-average conditions during the boreal summer of year (0), and wetter-than-average conditions during the spring of year (+1). Dry conditions during the summer of year (0) of an El Niño are associated with the locally divergent surface circulation engendered by the eastward shift of deep convection in the Pacific Ocean. Wet conditions during the spring of year (+1) of an El Niño are associated with the lagged warming of the tropical North Atlantic Ocean. Variability in the strength of the North Atlantic high is governed mainly by the North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) with a positive NAO phase implying a stronger than normal high and vice versa. The NAO is negatively correlated with Caribbean rainfall indirectly via anomalous sea surface temperatures (SST) associated with a... Abstract The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon and variability in the subtropical North Atlantic high sea level pressure (SLP) are known to affect rainfall in the Caribbean region. An El Niño event is associated with drier-than-average conditions during the boreal summer of year (0), and wetter-than-average conditions during the spring of year (+1). Dry conditions during the summer of year (0) of an El Niño are associated with the locally divergent surface circulation engendered by the eastward shift of deep convection in the Pacific Ocean. Wet conditions during the spring of year (+1) of an El Niño are associated with the lagged warming of the tropical North Atlantic Ocean. Variability in the strength of the North Atlantic high is governed mainly by the North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) with a positive NAO phase implying a stronger than normal high and vice versa. The NAO is negatively correlated with Caribbean rainfall indirectly via anomalous sea surface temperatures (SST) associated with a...