A model to predict the outcome of the bilharzial bladder cancer patient after radical cystectomy

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Abstract
The aim of the present study was to evaluate the prognostic factors of bilharzial bladder cancer treated by radical cystectomy: good prognosis is defined as a survival of more than one year, free of local recurrence or metastasis. Two groups of 155 patients, one with a good prognosis (GPG) and the other with a bad prognosis (BPG), through the period 1977-1983 at the National Cancer Institute of Cairo were systematically analyzed for 13 variables evaluated at the commencement of the one year follow-up. Nine factors proved to be of high prognostic value: age, tumour stage, size, grade and location in the bladder, lymph node involvement, metastasis, renal insufficiency and type of urinary diversion. Four variables appeared not to have prognostic value viz: sex, type of tumour (multiplicity), histopathology, and presence of ova of schistosoma haematobium in the specimen. Using a discriminant analysis technique to take into account the inter-relationships between the factors, it was found that tumour grade was the most important prognostic factor followed, in order of importance, by tumour stage, renal insufficiency, size of the tumour and lymph node involvement. Moreover, a simplified score for prognosis was determined: X = 10 grade (1 to 3) + 5 stage (1 to 4) + 6 renal insufficiency (Y/N) + 1 diameter of the tumour (cm) + 4 lymph node involvement (Y/N). The larger the score, the poorer the prognosis.