Accuracy of Diagnosis of Pancreatic Cancer Decreases with Increasing Age

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Abstract
Pancreatic cancer is common in the elderly and often is diagnosed clinically without pathologic confirmation. We compared age distribution and survival of 240 elderly patients with clinically diagnosed pancreatic cancer and 712 elderly patients with pathologically confirmed adeno- and ductal pancreatic carcinoma. All patients were registered by the Kansas state cancer registry from 1975-1984. The percentage of clinical diagnoses increased significantly from 12% in those aged in their 60s to 59% for those in their 90s (P less than .005). Observed 5-year survival for all of the clinically diagnosed patients was 8.4% compared with 0.6% for those pathologically confirmed. When locally confined disease only was considered, 5-year survival was 27% for patients clinically diagnosed and 4% for those pathologically confirmed. Given the fact that long survival from pancreatic carcinoma is a rare event, these findings suggest that in many elderly patients clinical diagnoses of pancreatic cancer are wrong. The findings have implications for the statistics on increasing incidence of pancreatic cancer (particularly in the elderly) and in discussion of prognosis with elderly patients diagnosed with pancreatic cancer without pathologic confirmation.

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