An Experiment in Probability Estimation
Open Access
- 1 August 1965
- journal article
- research article
- Published by SAGE Publications in Journal of Marketing Research
- Vol. 2 (3) , 266-273
- https://doi.org/10.1177/002224376500200306
Abstract
While the activity of marketing research can be fruitfully viewed within a statistical decision theoretic model, relatively little is known concerning the descriptive aspects of how people—managers or consumers—revise probabilities in the light of new information. This paper reports the results of a behavioral study in probability revision, and the implications of these findings for the operational use of decision theoretic concepts in prescriptive and descriptive choice-making models.Keywords
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