Recurrence Intervals Between Exceedances of Selected River Levels: 2. Alternatives to a Markov Model

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Abstract
In a study of the probability of exceedance of a selected stage for daily maximum water levels, exponential and gamma models can be shown to be more realistic than the Markov model described in the first paper of this series. The important differences are in the tails of the distributions, and the estimate of the expected recurrence interval is affected little by the choice of model. Confidence limits for the mean recurrence interval are, in fact, somewhat wider for the exponential model than for the Markov model. It is shown that the general relationship between the expected recurrence interval and the return period for the annual maximum series depends on the choice of model.
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