IMPROVING SEASONAL PREDICTION PRACTICES THROUGH ATTRIBUTION OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY

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Abstract
The Seasonal Diagnostics Consortium of the Applied Research Centers is engaging in a real-time activity to detect and understand the role of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in observed climate anomalies. The activity is aimed to improve practices in seasonal climate forecasting by fully harvesting the accumulated research evidence of the climate's sensitivity to ocean forcing. The approach, in the first phase of the activity, involves performing ensembles of atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) at several institutions, using the most recently observed global SST anomalies as prescribed forcings. The runs are routinely updated each month as the latest SST observations become available, adding to the archive of historical simulations spanning the last half-century. The SST-forced signal in the seasonal mean climate is detected through the agreement among ensemble mean anomalies drawn from the simulations of the various AGCMs. The consortium activity also compares the dynamically f... Abstract The Seasonal Diagnostics Consortium of the Applied Research Centers is engaging in a real-time activity to detect and understand the role of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in observed climate anomalies. The activity is aimed to improve practices in seasonal climate forecasting by fully harvesting the accumulated research evidence of the climate's sensitivity to ocean forcing. The approach, in the first phase of the activity, involves performing ensembles of atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) at several institutions, using the most recently observed global SST anomalies as prescribed forcings. The runs are routinely updated each month as the latest SST observations become available, adding to the archive of historical simulations spanning the last half-century. The SST-forced signal in the seasonal mean climate is detected through the agreement among ensemble mean anomalies drawn from the simulations of the various AGCMs. The consortium activity also compares the dynamically f...

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