Assessing Scenario Probabilities Via Interactive Goal Programming

Publisher Website
Google Scholar
Abstract
An interactive goal programming approach for assessing scenario probabilities used in long-range forecasting and decision analysis is developed and illustrated using a small numerical example. The method only requires marginal event probability and ordinal or interval first-order conditional probability assessments of a limited number of events constituting the scenarios and guarantees the consistency of the assessments in terms of the laws of probability calculus.probability assessment, interactive goal programming, scenario analysis, decision theory

This publication has 0 references indexed in Scilit: