Global and regional estimates of the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of price increases and other tobacco control policies

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Abstract
The objective of this study was to provide conservative estimates of the global and regional effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of tobacco control policies. Using a static model of the cohort of smokers alive in 1995, we estimated the number of smoking-attributable deaths that could be averted by: (1) price increases, (2) nicotine replacement therapy (NRT), and (3) a package of non-price interventions other than NRT. We calculated the cost-effectiveness of these policy interventions by weighing the approximate public-sector costs against the years of healthy life saved, measured in disability-adjusted life years, or DALYs. Even with deliberately conservative assumptions, tax increases that would raise the real price of cigarettes by 10% worldwide would prevent between 5 and 16 million tobacco-related deaths, and could cost US$3–70 per DALY saved in low-income and middle-income regions. NRT and a package of non-price interventions other than NRT are also cost-effective in low-income and middle-income regions, at US$280–870 per DALY and US$36–710 per DALY, respectively. In high-income countries, price increases were found to have a cost-effectiveness of US $83–2771 per DALY, NRT US$750–7206 per DALY and other non-price interventions US$696–13,924 per DALY. Tobacco control policies, particularly tax increases on cigarettes, are cost-effective relative to other health interventions. Our estimates are subject to considerable variation in actual settings; thus, local cost-effectiveness studies are required to guide local policy.

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