A Normative Theory of the Relationship Between Crime Rates and Imprisonment Rates: An Analysis of the Penal Behavior of U.S. States from 1972 to 1992

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Abstract
In this study, the authors regressed state imprisonment rates on three crime rates (homicide, robbery, burglary) at three points in time (1972, 1982 and 1992). They show that states that experience higher crime rates have higher imprisonment levels at all three periods. The authors also show that a basic pattern governing imprisonment trends is determined by the states' relative punitiveness scores: States found to be overpunitive, given their crime rates, tend to increase their imprisonment rate at a lower rate than other states. Conversely, states found to be underpunitive tend to increase their imprisonment rate in subsequent years at a faster pace than others.