The pattern of prehistoric Polynesian colonisation in New Zealand

Abstract
Graeme Caughley (1988) has proposed that the initial Polynesian colonisation of New Zealand followed a pattern of radial expansion, which proceeded at a velocity determined by population growth, and was probably centred upon the north-east coast of the South Island. We argue that his model is not, in fact, consistent with radiocarbon dates for New Zealand's early pre-European settlement. To do so we follow precisely the same statistical method, but use a larger sample of radiocarbon dates from moa-hunting sites than Caughley used. We then discuss the results in terms of Caughley's Kaikoura models and with respect to other cases of human colonisation. We conclude that a model of chaotic colonisation better fits the data than one of patterned colonisation. A second objective of this paper is to challenge Caughley's explanation of the course of moa (Dinornithiformes) extinction. His preferred model of human settlement proposed that rapid localised extinctions had coincided with the front of advancing colonisation. We argue that the period of co-existence between moas and people was much longer locally than Caughley estimates, and that archaeological cases, potentially at variance with this argument, represent a more serious threat than he concluded.