A Quantitative Risk Assessment of Waterborne Cryptosporidiosis in France Using Second‐Order Monte Carlo Simulation

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Abstract
A pragmatic quantitative risk assessment (QRA) of the risks of waterborne Cryptosporidium parvum infection and cryptosporidiosis in immunocompetent and immunodeficient French populations is proposed. The model takes into account French specificities such as the French technique for oocyst enumeration performance and tap water consumption. The proportion of infective oocysts is based on literature review and expert knowledge. The probability of infection for a given number of ingested viable oocysts is modeled using the exponential dose-response model applied on published data from experimental infections in immunocompetent human volunteers challenged with the IOWA strain. Second-order Monte Carlo simulations are used to characterize the uncertainty and variability of the risk estimates. Daily risk of infection and illness for the immunocompetent and the immunodeficient populations are estimated according to the number of oocysts observed in a single storage reservoir water sample. As an example, the mean daily risk of infection in the immunocompetent population is estimated to be 1.08 × 10−4 (95% confidence interval: [0.20 × 10−4; 6.83 × 10−4]) when five oocysts are observed in a 100 L storage reservoir water sample. Annual risks of infection and disease are estimated from a set of oocyst enumeration results from distributed water samples, assuming a negative binomial distribution of day-to-day contamination variation. The model and various assumptions used in the model are fully explained and discussed. While caveats of this model are well recognized, this pragmatic QRA could represent a useful tool for the French Food Safety Agency (AFSSA) to define recommendations in case of water resource contamination by C. parvum whose infectivity is comparable to the IOWA strain.