Evaluating the performance of cryospheric models1

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Abstract
Numerical models of the cryosphere cannot be verified and their truthfulness in providing an accurate description of actual physical processes cannot be proven conclusively. At best, models can be confirmed by comparing predictions with independent data that were not used to calibrate model parameters. The more such confirmations are achieved, the greater the confidence that can be placed in the model as a representation of Nature. Most prognostic cryospheric models have not been adequately calibrated and confirmed, and skepticism toward their predictions is therefore warranted.

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