New Directions in the Relation Between Public and Private Debt

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Abstract
Until the 1980s the outstanding indebtedness of government and private-sector borrowers in the United States exhibited sufficient negative covariation that total outstanding debt remained steady relative to nonfinancial economic activity. Three hypotheses-one based on lenders' behavior, one on borrowers' behavior, and one on credit market institutional arrangements-provide potential explanations for this phenomenon. Since 1980 the U.S. debt markets have departed from these previously prevailing patterns, however, as both government and private borrowing have risen sharply.

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