Aerial Mark-Recapture Estimates of Confined Mule Deer in Pinyon-Juniper Woodland

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Abstract
Counts from a helicopter of known numbers of marked (radio-collared) and reasonably well known numbers of unmarked mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) in 4 58-70 ha pastures were used to calculate 114 Lincoln-Petersen estimates of population size. Three approaches to combine Lincoln-Petersen estimates were explored: simple arithmetic mean, median, and joint hypergeometric maximum likelihood. Compared to individual estimates, all 3 produced narrower confidence intervals and increased the percentage of confidence intervals that covered true population values. The median was least sensitive to outliers, but the joint hypergeometric maximum likelihood provided .apprx. 40% smaller confidence intervals. About the same percentage of confidence intervals for all 3 estimators (64-73%) overlapped at least part of the ranges of true population size. For all 3 estimators, a large proportion (> 45%) of a small population should be marked to obtain more reliable estimates and greatest confidence interval coverage. However, there is still high probability that mean population estimates will be low.

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