An Analysis of Compositional Trends in Social Security Disability Insurance Awards, 1960-1991

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Abstract
This paper analyzes historical trends in the demographic and health-related characteristics of disabled worker beneficiaries of the Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI) program since 1960. Descriptive trend data show SSDI awards are increasingly made not only to younger persons, but also to persons with health impairments that at any age typically require longer durations of program entitlement. As a result, the expected number of years a new awardee stays on the rolls has risen over time, putting additional pressure on already strained program financing. A time-series regression analysis suggests that these compositional trends are shaped by a complex set of external and internal forces, not just a single source of change such as the growth in the population insured for work disability. Health status trends turn out to be especially significant determinants of awards to younger beneficiaries. Some policy implications of compositional changes and their determinants are discussed.

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