Risky shift: Social value or social choice? An alternative model.

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Abstract
Examined the potential applicability of 2 social choice models to the group decision-making process within the risky-shift paradigm to determine if the risky-shift phenomenon was, in part, due to the use of an inappropriate model to estimate the most likely group decision. Both models were modifications of the simple majority rule model. The predictive efficiency of these models was compared with that of a least-squares estimate of the most likely group decision. 70 undergraduates were assigned to 3- and 4-person groups. Results indicate that (a) there was no difference in the efficiency of the social choice models, and (b) both models provided a significantly more accurate estimate of the group decision than the least-squares estimate. An examination of the group decision, not predicted by the social choice models, strongly suggest that the risky-shift phenomenon may be due to the use of a procedure confounding the processes of attitude formation and group decision making, as well as the use of an inappropriate model for group decision making. (15 ref.) (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved)

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