Will Electronic Commerce Help to Reduce Traffic in Agglomeration Areas?

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Abstract
Assumptions that have been made about the impact of electronic shopping, like teleshopping and electronic commerce (e-commerce), on physical transportation have largely forecast considerable substitution effects. However, empirical evidence has been missing. To fill this gap, research was carried out in the Stuttgart region in southwest Germany to assess potential traffic substitution on the regional level in a midterm perspective of 10 years. The assessment is based on a model that deduces the traffic substitution potential from the behavior of the consumer who chooses alternatively physical or virtual shopping places depending on the commodity he or she needs or wants. The commodity not only is crucial for the choice of the shopping place and the frequency of purchases, but it is also important for the choice of the means of transportation or alternative shopping via Internet. The model that underlies this research comprises four steps. First, surveys are compiled on shopping behavior and transportation behavior for shopping purposes. The second step provides the deduction of groups with similar behavior regarding travel, affinity for e-commerce, and shopping. This leads to hypotheses about e-commerce potential within the research area and allows the assessment of substitution effects by comparing the status quo with the scenario constructed by the empirical data. Regarding the impact of e-commerce on transportation, the results promise only slight reductions of clearly less than 10% of total shopping transportation caused by consumers.

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