Econometric-engineering analysis of Federal energy conservation programs in the commercial sector

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Abstract
This report examines the energy savings and capital cost consequences of four commercial sector conservation programs: thermal performance standards for new buildings, the Federal energy management program (FEMP) for Federal buildings, a grants program for nonprofit institutions, and a tax credit for conservation-related investments. The effects of these programs are evaluated using an econometric-engineering model of commercial energy use. A baseline projection is developed as the first step in the analysis to determine energy use in the absence of conservation programs. Each conservation program is then evaluated independently and in combination with all other programs. Also, a scenario is developed that removes the effects of market imperfections such as lack of information and institutional barriers. This perfect-market scenario provides an estimate of the maximum conservation potential in the commercial sector. The analysis of the four conservation programs indicates a preeminent role for thermal performance standards in reducing commercial energy use over the next quarter century.

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