Weight-of-Evidence Issues and Frameworks for Sediment Quality (And Other) Assessments

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Abstract
Weight of evidence (WOE) frameworks for integrating and interpreting multiple lines of evidence are discussed, focusing on sediment quality assessments, and introducing a series of ten papers on WOE. Approaches to WOE include individual lines of evidence (LOE) as well as combined LOE (indices, statistical summarization, logic systems, scoring systems, and best professional judgment [BPJ]). The application of WOE, based on multiple LOE, is discussed relative to the published literature. Fully implementing WOE requires consideration of six main LOE in sediment (or other assessments); these LOE generally correspond to other causality considerations including Koch's Postulates. However, the issue of sediment stability is an additional consideration, and the use of tabular decision matrices is recommended in a logic system to address LOE described by others as “analogy”, “plausibility”, or “logical and scientific sense.” Three examples of logic system WOE determinations based on the Sediment Quality Triad and using tabular decision matrices are provided. Key lessons from these examples include the: generally limited utility of sediment quality value (SQV)-based LOE; need for BPJ; importance of ecological relevance; importance of assessing background conditions; and, need for appropriately customizing study designs to suit sitespecific circumstances (rather than application of “boiler-plate” assessments). Overall, more quantitative approaches are needed that better define certainty elements of WOE in an open framework process, i.e., statistical summarization culminating in a logic system incorporating BPJ.

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