Estimating the Transmission Probability of Human Immunodeficiency Virus in Injecting Drug Users in Thailand
- 1 March 2001
- journal article
- Published by Oxford University Press (OUP) in Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C: Applied Statistics
- Vol. 50 (1) , 1-14
- https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-9876.00216
Abstract
SUMMARY: We estimate the transmission probability for the human immunodeficiency virus from seroconversion data of a cohort of injecting drug users (IDUs) in Thailand. The transmission probability model developed accounts for interval censoring and incorporates each IDU’s reported frequency of needle sharing and injecting acts. Using maximum likelihood methods, the per needle sharing act transmission probability estimate between infectious and susceptible IDUs is 0.008. The effects of covariates, disease dynamics, mismeasured exposure information and the uncertainty of the disease prevalence on the transmission probability estimate are considered.Keywords
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