A Paleoclimate Model of Northern Hemisphere Ice Sheets

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Abstract
A model for predicting the growth and decay of ice sheets based on the astronomical theory of climate change is presented. The purpose of the study in part is to isolate the role of the ice-sheet physics and earth response under varying ice load by simplifying to the extreme the role of the hydrosphere-atmosphere. Ice sheet physics and the response of the lithosphere-asthenosphere under the ice load are modeled explicitly. Insolation anomalies (taken at a fixed latitude) directly force latitudinal displacement of the snow line. Accumulation rate a, and ablation rate a′ evaluated at mean sea level are specificed as external constants; a,a′ decrease linearly with ice sheet elevation. Rough tuning of the model to the general shape of the ice-volume record of the last two major glacials determines the external constants. Model predictions of the ages of several events in the last major glaciation compare well with the radiological ages. The six glacial terminatios (I–VI) over the last 600,000 yr are identified and the predicted ages compare reasonably well with the δ18O record for two deep-sea cores. A direct comparison of model power spectra of ice volume as a function of period with spectra of the δ18O record shows apparent underprediction of power near 100,000 yr. When a quantitative but heuristic method for taking into account the “red noise” spectrum evident in the geological records is used, a much more favorable comparison is possible. The model prediction lends support to the hypothesis that the nonlinearity of the ice-sheet physics is responsible for the 100,000-yr periodicity in the geological record of the late Pleistocene.