The Standard Error of Time-Average Estimates of Climatic Means

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Abstract
Climate change studies with general circulation models require the estimation of climatic means by calculation of finite-time averages. A simple stochastic model is used to estimate the standard error of such an estimation method as a function of averaging time. Consequences for long-range forecasting are also discussed. Abstract Climate change studies with general circulation models require the estimation of climatic means by calculation of finite-time averages. A simple stochastic model is used to estimate the standard error of such an estimation method as a function of averaging time. Consequences for long-range forecasting are also discussed.

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