Application of the linear perturbation model (LPM) to flood routing on the Mekong River

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Abstract
Using eight years for calibration out of a total of 19 years of daily discharges at the five stations, Luang Prabang, Vientiane, Thakhek, Pakse and Kratie (located about 250 km apart on the Mekong River), the LPM model was applied for flood routing on four reaches, namely, from each upstream station to the downstream station of Kratie. Both nonparametric (unconstrained) and parametric (transfer function) forms of the model are calibrated by least squares, initially in design mode (without updating), and the resulting model variances are obtained, using the last 11 years of data for verification (i.e. model validation). The transfer function form is also applied in real-time forecasting mode for various lead times (up to four days), using simple autoregressive models calibrated for the individual upper reaches, to forecast the inflows over the various lead times, together with the measured outflows up to and including the time origin of the forecast.