Assessing the effects of volcanic disasters on human settlement in the Willaumez Peninsula, Papua New Guinea: a Bayesian approach to radiocarbon calibration

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Abstract
Bayesian statistical approaches to calibrating radiocarbon determinations can make a significant contribution to disaster studies by adding precision to the dating of both the environmental forcing agent and the consequent human responses. An archaeological case study in the Willaumez Peninsula region of New Britain, Papua New Guinea uses radiocarbon dating to examine the chronology of five major volcanic events and the timing and nature of recolonization. The results demonstrate the general applicability of Bayesian-based approaches for building a sound tephrochronology and for evaluating the impacts of volcanic hazards on human history.