Abstract
Systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) is still a disease with significant mortality. Although 5 yr after diagnosis 92% of patients are alive, the prognosis falls to 82% survival at 10 yr, 76% at 15 yr and only 68% at 20 yr in Toronto [1]. There has been improvement in survival, with the standardized mortality ratio in patients recruited to the Toronto cohort in 1970–1977 being 10.1 (95% CI 6.5–15.0), compared with 3.3 (95% CI 1.8–5.7) for those recruited between 1986 and 1994 [2]. Data from other centres in the USA and Europe has been similar. Studies published around 1980 found that about 80% of patients survived 5 yr and about 60% of patients survived 10 yr. More recent studies have shown that 5‐yr survival is now nearer 90–95% and that 70–85% of patients survive 10 yr [3]. In most studies, patients with renal involvement have had a poorer prognosis than those without renal disease. Nevertheless, survival has shown improvement in those with renal disease presenting to a UK centre between 1976 and 1986 (81% 10‐yr survival), compared with those presenting between 1963 and 1975 (56% 10‐yr survival) [4].

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