Tracing the origin and history of the HIV-2 epidemic

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Abstract
In this study we date the introduction of HIV-2 into the human population and estimate the epidemic history of HIV-2 subtype A in Guinea-Bissau, the putative geographic origin of HIV-2. The evolutionary history of the simian immunodeficiency virus sooty mangabey /HIV-2 lineage was reconstructed by using available database sequences with known sampling dates, and a timescale for this history was calculated by using maximum likelihood methods. The date of the most recent common ancestor of HIV-2 subtype A strains was estimated to be 1940 ± 16 and that of B strains was estimated to be 1945 ± 14. In addition we used coalescent theory to estimate the past population dynamics of HIV-2 subtype A in a rural population of Guinea-Bissau. Parametric and nonparametric estimates of the effective number of infections through time were obtained for an equal sample of gag, pol , and env sequences. Our estimates of the epidemic history of HIV-2 subtype A in Guinea-Bissau show a transition from constant size to rapid exponential growth around 1955–1970. Our analysis provides evidence for a zoonotic transfer of HIV-2 during the first half of the 20th century and an epidemic initiation in Guinea-Bissau that coincides with the independence war (1963–1974), suggesting that war-related changes in sociocultural patterns had a major impact on the HIV-2 epidemic.