Stochastic Efficiency versus Mean‐Variance Criteria as Predictors of Adoption of Reduced Tillage

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Abstract
Costs and benefits of conservation programs depend on the fraction of participants adopting a practice. Under risk, it is not clear whether predictions of adoption should be based on adoption's effect on the farmers' entire income distribution or only on its mean and variance. It is also unclear whether one must elicit the farmer's subjective beliefs about the effect on his income distribution or whether some “objective” distribution can be used. This paper describes how well mean‐variance and stochastic efficiency criteria predicted adoption of a reduced tillage practice in a watershed in central Indiana when applied to “objective” and “subjective” income distributions.

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