Long-period astronomical forcing of mammal turnover

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Abstract
Mammals are among the fastest-radiating groups, being characterized by a mean species lifespan of the order of 2.5 million years (Myr)1,2. The basis for this characteristic timescale of origination, extinction and turnover is not well understood. Various studies have invoked climate change to explain mammalian species turnover3,4, but other studies have either challenged or only partly confirmed the climate–turnover hypothesis5,6,7. Here we use an exceptionally long (24.5–2.5 Myr ago), dense, and well-dated terrestrial record of rodent lineages from central Spain, and show the existence of turnover cycles with periods of 2.4–2.5 and 1.0 Myr. We link these cycles to low-frequency modulations of Milankovitch oscillations8, and show that pulses of turnover occur at minima of the 2.37-Myr eccentricity cycle and nodes of the 1.2-Myr obliquity cycle. Because obliquity nodes and eccentricity minima are associated with ice sheet expansion and cooling and affect regional precipitation, we infer that long-period astronomical climate forcing is a major determinant of species turnover in small mammals and probably other groups as well.